2009-2015 ©
             Publication
Journal Publication
Title of Article Forecasting Gold Prices Using Membership Function Model as Probability Density Function of Normal Distribution 
Date of Acceptance 13 July 2018 
Journal
     Title of Journal WSEAS TRANSACTIONS on BUSINESS and ECONOMICS 
     Standard SCOPUS 
     Institute of Journal World Scientific and Engineering Academy and Society (WSEAS) Press 
     ISBN/ISSN 1109-9526 
     Volume 2018 
     Issue 15 
     Month -
     Year of Publication 2018 
     Page 340-347 
     Abstract In this paper, the new forecasting algorithm for predicting gold prices using concept of fuzzy logic with membership function model as probability density function of normal distribution is proposed and compared to the triangular membership function model and the trapezoidal membership function model. The daily gold prices from January 2015 to May 2018 collected from the London Bullion Market Association are used in this study. The prices are transformed to the rate of return and then the Train : Test percent ratio is used to obtain the training data and the testing data, respectively, and consists of 99:01, 95:05, 90:10, 80:20, 70:30, 60:40, 50:50, 40:50, 30:70, 20:80 and 10:90. The root mean squared error and the mean absolute error are applied to measure the performance of the proposed algorithm and to compare three presented models. The experimental results can conclude that the proposed algorithm can be practical to the gold price forecasting; furthermore, the proposed algorithm with the membership function model as probability density function of normal distribution can better improve itself than other models when it has more training data as well as it can demonstrate better performance than others. 
     Keyword Fuzzy logic, gold price forecasting, probability density function of normal distribution, trapezoidal membership function, triangular membership function 
Author
587020003-4 Mr. SUPAP SAKHA [Main Author]
Science Doctoral Degree
567020034-1 Miss SOMCHIT BOONTHIEM
Science Doctoral Degree

Reviewing Status มีผู้ประเมินอิสระ 
Status ตีพิมพ์แล้ว 
Level of Publication นานาชาติ 
citation false 
Part of thesis true 
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