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Publication
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| Research Title |
Policy Planning for Thai Ethanol Industry |
| Date of Distribution |
8 December 2014 |
| Conference |
| Title of the Conference |
The 2nd International Symposium on Food-Energy-Water Security Challenge (FEWS 2014) |
| Organiser |
Khon Kaen University |
| Conference Place |
Centara Hotel and Convention Centre Khon Kaen |
| Province/State |
Khon Kaen, Thailand |
| Conference Date |
8 December 2014 |
| To |
10 December 2014 |
| Proceeding Paper |
| Volume |
2 |
| Issue |
FEWS 2014 |
| Page |
29 |
| Editors/edition/publisher |
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| Abstract |
Due to expansion of Thai ethanol demand, appropriate policy planning is needed. Therefore, artificial neural networks were used to formulate the prediction models of ethanol demand for both domestic consumption and export; because, their prediction accuracy is quite high and they can address problems having both linear and non-linear relationships. In addition, the sensitivity analysis of ANN models was performed in this study. The results showed that ANN models were robust and reliable to be used in forecasting the domestic consumption and export of Thai ethanol. From the results of forecasting, new ethanol plant was not needed in 2013 because existing plants were assumed full capacity of operation, and domestic demand and export were met. However, ethanol plants should be increased at least 1 in 2014 and 6 in 2015 when considering the base case of forecasting. Consequently, feedstocks and crop production were further estimated basing on the previous number of ethanol plants increased in order to meet the supply of the plants. The estimation could be used as guideline for Thailand to produce sugarcane and cassava at least 97 and 27 million tons, respectively, which were sufficient for the ethanol industry and other major industries. |
| Author |
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| Peer Review Status |
มีผู้ประเมินอิสระ |
| Level of Conference |
นานาชาติ |
| Type of Proceeding |
Abstract |
| Type of Presentation |
Oral |
| Part of thesis |
true |
| Presentation awarding |
false |
| Attach file |
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| Citation |
0
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Journal Publication
ไทย